💡 EWVC February: 🎲 Redefining Consumer Economic: Prediction Markets, Gamified Speculation, and Venture Capital Implications

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Quote of the day: “Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world; indeed, it’s the only thing that ever has” — Margaret Mead; anthropologist, author and speaker.

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The global consumer economy is currently undergoing a structural transformation characterized by the “financialization of everything,” a phenomenon where traditional consumption is replaced by speculative engagement with high-velocity digital assets.

A useful frame for what’s happening: consumer tech is moving from selling products to selling dopamine-priced exposure to outcomes. Not ownership, not utility, just the feeling of being “in the game” with instant feedback and a constant sense of possibility. Crypto was the early prototype, but the same behavioral engine now runs through trading apps, sports betting, and prediction markets.

👉 That’s also why this is starting to look like a real consumer category VCs can underwrite.

Kalshi is the clearest datapoint that this is no longer niche. In November 2025, Kalshi hit ~$5.8B in monthly trading volume (MarketWatch via Morningstar) - and the mix matters: by September 2025, MarketWatch reported $2.86B monthly volume with $2.56B coming from sports alone (MarketWatch via Morningstar).

Then the “this is consumer now” signal: the Financial Times reports Kalshi’s user base grew from 600,000 to 5.1 million within a year (FT) . That kind of adoption curve is what makes VCs stop arguing whether something is “investment” or “gambling” and start treating it like distribution infrastructure.

Even more telling: the FT also estimates Kalshi’s annualized sports-trading revenue at ~$1.3B, and notes Kalshi’s 2026 Super Bowl trading volume surpassed $1B (FT) . That is “sportsbook-scale” behavior, just wearing a different regulatory outfit.

Polymarket volume estimates differ by dashboard or methodology. Some industry dashboards report Polymarket’s November 2025 monthly volume at “more than $3.7B” (Sportsbook Review). While another tracker puts Polymarket’s November volume at “more than $1.87B” (The Block).

In October 2025, Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE owner) announced it would invest up to $2B in Polymarket at ~$8B valuation pre-investment, and crucially ICE would become a global distributor of Polymarket’s event-driven data (ICE) .

The FT framed this as part of Polymarket’s path toward mainstream financial integration, also noting Polymarket’s 2025 acquisition of QCX and QC Clearing for $112M as a potential route back into the US regulatory perimeter (FT) .

VC implication: the endgame isn’t just taking a spread on consumer bets. It’s owning (and distributing) the probability layer; a real-time sentiment and forecasting feed that can be sold into institutions, media, and fintech rails.

This category is scaling inside a jurisdictional knife-fight:

Poland is the cleanest European proof that demand beats policy. If the US is the regulated frontier (where the market grows and the winners tend to be licensed) Poland is the opposite: a country with intense appetite, tightly constrained legal supply, and a tax regime that makes the legal path feel expensive, friction-heavy, or simply unavailable. That triangle doesn’t “reduce gambling.” It re-routes it. In that world, the shadow market doesn’t sit at the edges; it becomes the real market, because it offers the product people actually want: seamless mobile access, broader selection, and fewer constraints.

An EY analysis (commissioned by the Polish “Graj Legalnie” association) estimates illegal online casino operators generated ~PLN 25.9B in turnover in 2023 (Graj Legalnie) . The same report estimates lost “gaming tax” revenues climbing to ~PLN 519M in 2023 (Graj Legalnie).

The policy setup matters here. Poland’s framework is unusually “tight” via monopoly structure - this report notes a state monopoly for online casinos exists only in Poland, Finland, and Austria. In practice, that combination (high demand and constrained legal supply) is exactly how shadow markets become the “real market.”

And taxation adds fuel. Poland’s Gambling Act applies a 12% tax on betting (base = total stakes), per SBC News’ summary of the legal framework (SBC News) . Meanwhile, the personal winnings tax fight is politically live: in December 2025, President Karol Nawrocki vetoed a proposal to raise the winnings tax from 10% to 15% (iGamingBusiness) .

The health risk is increasingly notable. The underlying psychological mechanism in all these platforms and new forms of attention is variable ratio reinforcement.

The impacts on health are already showing, according to data from the Institute of Psychiatry and Neurology, 31% of people who speculate with cryptocurrencies show symptoms of addiction, and 86% of that group simultaneously engage in other forms of gambling.

In the case of Poland, nearly one in three Polish citizens gambles, spending an average of approximately 5,750 PLN per year.

This isn’t just a betting story. It’s directly linked to the consumer distribution story.

Kim describes AI startups as a “flock” blasted into the sky in quick succession; most won’t gain enough lift, but the ones that “flap” hardest -shipping and iterating constantly- create distance from the pack (a16z).

The same mechanics powering prediction markets and gamified speculation -fast feedback loops, social virality, “scoreboards” (PnL, rankings), and winner-take-attention dynamics- now show up in go-to-market: build in public, high-frequency shipping, distribution-first.

We are incredibly proud to see Elina Berrebi and Alice Albizzati, Revaia, receiving the insignia of Knight of the National Order of Merit (Chevalier de l'Ordre National du Mérite), presented by Clara Chappaz.

"This distinction does not close a path. It reminds us that our choices today shape the world of our children."

Congratulations! A well-deserved honor!

Joanna Strober is the co-founder of Midi Health, a virtual care platform delivering insurance-covered perimenopause and menopause care nationwide.

Before Midi, she founded Kurbo (a digital therapeutic for childhood obesity) later acquired by WeightWatchers. She previously spent 20+ years investing in health and consumer companies across private equity and venture capital, with past portfolio exposure including consumer internet names like BlueNile, eToys, BabyCenter, HotJobs, and Flycast. She’s also the author of Getting to 50/50 and is a frequent speaker on women and leadership.

👉 Find more about her here!

SlateVC's first growth fund focused on energy and circularity is live with a €132M first close. The 🇫🇷 Paris-based firm targets energy and circularity startups where environmental gains align with superior economics.

👉 Read more here.

Industry: Tech | Location: 🇩🇪 Berlin | Funding: $40M (Series B)

Andercore raised $40M in equity and debt to accelerate European expansion; the round includes Atomico and Project A, with Inven Capital joining, plus institutional financing from Commerzbank and KfW. The company is co-founded by Philipp Andernach (CEO) and Elsa Cordonnier (Product & Tech), and positions itself as “AI that moves containers of real products globally,” automating pricing/quoting/QA/logistics/embedded financing for cross-border industrial supply.

👉 Find more here!

Industry: GovTech | Location: 🇫🇷 Paris | Funding: €30M (Series B)

Vizzia raised a €30M Series B led by Base10 Partners with participation from Headline and Sistafund, bringing total funding to €50M. Co-founder Katrin de Proyart points to “incredible momentum” as European local authorities prioritize safety and anti-social behaviour enforcement; Vizzia’s stack combines connected cameras with AI-enabled analysis to support investigations and issues like fly-tipping.

👉 Find more here!

Industry: Cybersecurity | Location: 🇮🇱 Israel | Funding: $33M

Venice (formerly Valkyrie) emerged from stealth with $33M total funding, including a $25M Series A led by IVP with participation from Index Ventures and others, to modernize privileged access management for cloud/SaaS/on-prem and increasingly AI-driven enterprise environments. Co-founder/CEO Rotem Lurie pitches the core insight succinctly: teams and environments change faster, and AI accelerates both operations and attackers; so access control has to become real-time and adaptive. In other words: identity security is moving from “vaults and approvals” to “continuous control loops.”

👉 Find more here!

Industry: Insurtech | Location: 🇸🇪 Stockholm | Funding: $75M (Series C)

Lassie raised $75M Series C with participation from Balderton Capital, Felix Capital, Inventure, Passion Capital, and Stena Sessan as it expands its insurance and preventative care platform across Europe. The company was founded in 🇸🇪 Stockholm by Hedda Båverud Olsson and Sophie Wilkinson, alongside Johan Jönsson and is pushing a clear wedge: bundling insurance with daily-use preventive habits.

👉 Find more here!

Europe’s proof point in Q3 wasn’t theoretical - it had a ticker. Klarna’s long-awaited IPO priced the company at $15.1B, which is well above its $6.7B 2022 private valuation, but still far below the $45.5B 2021 peak.

👉 Read it here!

👉 Read it here!

EQT’s take: Europe can produce the next wave of global tech champions, but only if it fixes the scale-up bottlenecks that push winners to the US; starting with simpler, unified rules (including an ambitious “28th regime”), more innovation-friendly public procurement, and a tighter bridge between late-stage capital and corporates via tools like offtake agreements and milestone-based financing. 🇪🇺🚀

👉 Read it here!

Judith Dada (GP at Visionaries Club) talks to Amy Lewin and cuts through the noise and talks about Europe, and what it will take to accelerate competitiveness.

👉 Read more here!

According to Yassin El Hardouz, New Zealand’s VC ecosystem is compact but highly influential, and the women operating at partner and leadership level play an outsized role in capital allocation, governance, deep tech commercialization, and global scaling.

👉 Read it here!

👉 Listen to it here!

A big thank you to all of you who joined us for the EWVC #InvestorBreakfast in 🇪🇪 Tallinn! It was great to host you at the Karma Ventures office and have an open discussion regarding the investment ecosystem in the Baltics.

👉 Read more here!

It was great to be in 🇬🇧 Manchester for the British Business Bank Annual Conference, joining investors, policymakers and ecosystem partners to discuss the future of UK venture and growth capital. Thank you for having us!

👉 Read reflections from the discussions here!

Together with the Invest in Women Taskforce, we were thrilled to host Lisa Edgar for a deep dive into the LP mindset. With 20+ years of experience investing in funds across the US, UK, and Europe, Lisa didn't hold back on the realities of fundraising today.

👉 Read more here!

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